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| World Environment Day 2005 : Articles |
The climate change threat to development
Md. Saeedur Rahman
ACCORDING to media reports, the highest ever recorded temperature in
the country was 45.1 degrees Celsius in 1972. The nation is now
passing through another long dry spell with temperatures reaching 43
degrees. We should be aware of the threat posed to Bangladesh by
climate change and rising temperatures.
The universe from time unknown is in a continuous state of
adjustment for attaining a condition of dynamic equilibrium by
balancing the unknown variables of the space system. Climate is one
such variable which influences life on this planet. The concern is
the vulnerabilities of these living beings to the accelerated change
process of the climate arising out of increasing temperature.
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change drafted and signed back in 1997 came into force on
February 16, 2005 following ratification by the Russian Federation.
Under this protocol, thirty-five industrialized countries and the
European Community have become legally time bound and target
oriented to reduce their combined emissions of six major greenhouse
gases.
Over the last century, the global sea-level rose by 10 to 20
centimetres according to the 2001 estimate of the Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). More recent studies by Australian
scientists reconfirm that atmospheric temperatures are increasing,
oceans are becoming warmer, sea levels are rising, and rainfall
patterns are changing. The amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's
surface directly is falling. The World Health Organization estimates
that climate change is responsible for killing 150,000 people every
year across the world.
Further, the ice-cap will be free by the end of this century. Rising
sea levels will rise further. Dwindling flow will reduce
hydro-electric power generation and disable irrigation, impacting
world food production. The changes in the pattern of precipitation
rates will also result in more frequent droughts and floods that
would impact adversely on poverty reduction efforts. The low-lying
deltaic regions will immediately face two consequences: first,
structures located unprotected will permanently be inundated, and
second, the rise in sea-levels will intensify the erosion rates
risking further the foreshore and back shore structures. The
withdrawal of freshwater upstream and reduction of flow may flatten
the supply amplitude during the dry seasons.
In Bangladesh, the question is more what can happen rather than what
can be done, because in terms of total emissions, we are not a big
polluter. But Bangladesh is already experiencing the climate change
impacts. The nation's coast is frequented by storm surges, and as
such, the climate change impacts are neither unknown nor
unthinkable. The recent tsunami was not linked to climate change,
but its impacts on the coastal communities registered the visibly
measurable vulnerabilities of the hard-core poor to the potential
adverse impacts.
The government is yet to portray adequately its initiatives in the
climate issue except establishment of a cell. Nevertheless the
people are experiencing nature's strange behaviour. Research carried
out by the Meteorological Department revealed that from 1961 to 1990
the annual average increase in temperature is 0.0037 degrees
Celsius. During these 30 years, increase in annual average rainfall
has been 4.9323 mm. From 1990 to 2000, the rate of increase in
temperature is comparatively higher, i.e. 0.0072 degree Celsius,
while the average annual rainfall during this decade has decreased
remarkably. Rise in sea level by 7.8 mm per year on the
south-eastern coast has also been evidenced in the study. The Bruun
rule says a sandy shoreline retreats about 100 metres for every
metre rise in sea-level, which clearly signals huge loss of
country's land mass. The loss of non-mangrove forestry in Kuakata on
the south-west to the bay is one example. The landward expansion of
sea water irrigation in the salt farms and shrimp fields in Teknaf
in recent times is another indicator of sea level rise.
The National Water Management Plan, using climate change models,
assessed that by 2050 the progressive changes in rainfall and
evapotranspiration will result in increased crop water requirement,
as much as 25 percent above the current demand. The predicted
increase in peak season period rainfall will be about 28.6 percent
higher, causing increased flooding. Sea level has been projected at
44 cm rise by 2050 resulting in continued sedimentation of the river
beds and flood plains, obstructing the upland drainage. The impact
analysis of severe cyclone events on the coastal population
demonstrates that at 100-year return period about 4 million people
will be at high risk of devastation from saline flooding arising out
of extreme hydraulic events. The analysis further indicates
increased surge height of between 5 and 20 percent. In developing
the water plan, the potential impacts of climate change from global
warming has been labelled as knowledge gap.
The coastal lands of Bangladesh are delineated at 47,000 sq.km. The
population is 36.8 million with density about the same as compared
to the rest of the country. With 24 percent extreme, the poverty
rate is 52 percent, as against 49 percent for the whole of the
nation. About one-sixth of the tropical storms generating in the Bay
of Bengal hit the coast. The backshore is currently protected from
minus-climate hydraulic events by 654-km of sea-facing embankments
beached between the high and the low tide lines. The coastal
community is protected by a cluster of 123 polders and nearly 2000
shelters flanked by a proven effective system of disaster management
under limiting conditions.
It is apparent that adaptions to climate change are focused on
mitigation. Water resources professionals in many parts of the world
are considering how to adapt to the threats posed by climate change.
A broader view of the multiple stresses on water resources shows
that there is a need and an opportunity to address simultaneously
the current adaptation deficit and to incorporate adaptation to
reduce future stresses due to climate change. Imaginable adaptive
measures for Bangladesh are sea walls, water drainage, relocation,
afforestation and, overhauling of the existing coastal
infrastructures, albeit not all of them are within affordable means.
There are many other climate change dimensions. Despite inadequacy
of understanding, awareness, realisation, capacity and, largely the
limitation of resources, the government may start with
instant-multiplication of its ongoing efforts mentioned below what
may eventually partially circumvent the future impacts of the
climate change:
i) Sustainably developed and managed foreshore forestry, farms, and
grasslands over a period of time will primarily reduce the increased
surge heights, foreshore erosions and damages by cataclysms
resulting from sea level rise. The ribbon forestry will have the
capacity to ameliorate climate change by storing more carbon in
soils, plant material, and wood products, effectively removing
significant amounts of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere.
ii) The renovation of existing coastal infrastructures, in
particular the sea-defence embankment by blanket cover of low cost
octagonal hollow concrete units (for example at Chokoria-Cox's Bazar)
that has already proven to be an effective measure for long term
sustainability against increased coastal erosions. Such
strengthening will reduce the annual operation and maintenance cost
by its distribution over a period of at least 20 years. The design
of the embankment is also flexible and compatible to resultant
hydraulic events from the rising sea levels.
iii) The cluster of the polders gradually developed over the century
in succession shall require to be integrated and harmonised in a
manner under composite planning to function in sequence with respect
to its structural stability, salt and freshwater blending and,
upland drainage in particular. The innovative local agro-economic
practices adaptive to the change process shall have to be tapped in
facing the vulnerabilities and harnessing the opportunities.
The core of development programmes should as such be built on
integrating and mainstreaming the climate change issues into good
practices. If the impact of climate change is not addressed,
Bangladesh will be disproportionately affected in agriculture,
health, and water. Agriculture being the largest sector for rural
labour employment, its impacts on food security will be a threat to
the nation's existence. The FAO has recently warned that climate
change will increase world hunger. Climate change together with
withdrawal of water upstream in tandem with the increased
sedimentation downstream may lock up Bangladesh in a year-round
water-trap, turning it even into a life-free land mass. The struggle
to fight against poverty and mandate to manage natural resources
will be lost unless climate change response strategies are developed
and implemented at local, regional, and continental levels.
The vision statement of the draft Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)
recognizes that regional variation in poverty is influenced by the
incidence of natural hazards and tends to be higher in
disaster-prone areas, and as such, it includes ensuring disaster
management and preventing environmental degradation for overcoming
the persistence of deprivation. It is unfortunately evident that
climate change issues in practical terms have not been given much
thought in the national strategy for poverty reduction. Climate
change impacts may continue to be a concomitant threat to the
government's PRSP by further widening the gap between the rich and
the poor, and eventually, the developed and the developing globally.
Therefore, without climate change issues in the forefront, the PRSP
may not be as efficacious as designed.
Md. Saeedur Rahman is a retired chief engineer of BWDB.
The Daily Star
Sun. June 05, 2005
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