Executive Summary

 

Introduction

 

PART I. World Status of Desertification

A. Concept of Desertification

B. Past Assessments

(I) Assessment By UNICOD, 1977

(II)Assessment By UNEP, 1984

C. Present Status - Assessment 1991

(I) Definition of Dryland Area

(II)Global Status of Desertification

(a) Socio-economic aspects
(b) State of the land

(III)Local Assessments of Desertification Rate

(IV)Situation in Africa

PART II. The United Nations Plan of Action to Combat Desertification

 

PART III. Policy Guidelines and Course of Action for Combating Desertification

 

PART IV. Financing the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification

 

 

Annex

 

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• Over-exploitation and degradation of 3,333 million hectares or about 73% of the total area of rangelands which are of low potential for human and animal carrying capacity and a low population density but may be intrinsically resilient and might have considerable capacity to recuperate and regain their potential productivity if properly managed;

• Decline in fertility and soil structure leading gradually to soil loss in 216 million hectares of rainfed croplands or nearly 47% of their total area in the drylands, which constitute the most vulnerable and fragile marginal cultivable lands subjected to an increasing population pressure;

• Degradation of 43 million hectares of irrigated croplands amounting to nearly 30% of their total area in the drylands, which usually have the highest agricultural potential and the greatest population densities when well managed.

• 102 million hectares of irrigated non-degraded or only slightly degraded irrigated croplands [70% of their total area in the drylands];

• 242 million hectares of non-degraded or only slightly degraded rainfed croplands [53% of their total area in the drylands];

• 1,233 million hectares of non-degraded or slightly degraded rangelands [27% of their total area in the drylands];.

• 34 million hectares of moderately degraded irrigated croplands [23% of their total area in the drylands];

• 183 million hectares of moderately degraded rainfed croplands [40% of their total area in the drylands];

• 1,267 million hectares of moderately degraded rangelands [28% of their total area in the drylands].

• 9 million hectares of severely and very severely degraded irrigated croplands;

• 33 million hectares of severely and very severely degraded rainfed croplands (reclamation of only 70% of these lands might be economically viable due to climate and soil limitations);

• 2,066 million hectares of severely and very severely degraded rangelands (reclamation of only 50% of these lands might be economically viable due to climate and soil limitations).

• Social, economic, cultural and political development with emphasis on solving problems of food, poverty, housing, employment, health, education, population pressures and demographic imbalance;

• Conservation of natural resources with emphasis on water, energy, soil, minerals, plant and animal resources in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas;

• Environmental control with special emphasis on protection against decline of soil fertility, soil loss, water, soil and air pollution as well as deforestation.

12. It is recognized that broad based public participation including all sections, both rural and urban, of the affected community including women, indigenous groups and representative NGOs, is most essential for implementing the PACD.

13. To fully implement the PACD, an increased international effort should include strengthening the capabilities of the countries affected, developing countries in particular, to address environmental/developmental issues through assistance in developing appropriate policies, pricing, legislation, institution building, improved natural resource management and accounting, the capacity to use environmental impact assessment and environmental cost-benefit analysis technologies, improved environmental data bases and environmental education and training, and popular participation in implementation, especially at local level.

14. On the basis of experience in implementing the PACD during 1978-1991, it could be stated that the PACD is dealing with a problem that cannot be solved once and for all. It is rather like dealing with a process that will generate new problems to be tackled once the more urgent ones have been dealt with. Therefore, it would be unrealistic to fix a date when the PACD would be fully implemented. However, certain time targets could be set forth, both nationally and internationally, for implementing major preventive, corrective and supporting measures to make the Plan fully operational.

15. The urgency of addressing the global problem of desertification is based on the fact that this process:

(a) socio-economically: constitutes the main cause and mechanism of global loss of productive land resources, causes economic instability and political unrest in areas affected, brings pressures on the economy and the stability of societies outside the affected areas, prevents achievements of sustainable development in affected areas and countries;

(b) environmentally: contributes to loss of global biodiversity, loss of the biomass and bioproductivity of the planet, and global climate change.

16. To achieve the general goal of the PACD, the following set of main environmental/developmental targets can be set for the year 2020:

(a) Preventing further deterioration of the world food security and sustaining productivity of land affected by, or prone to, desertification through the introduction of environmentally sound, socially acceptable and fair, and economically feasible land use systems based on social equity and appropriate technologies;

(b) Protection of non-degraded or slightly degraded lands prone to desertification and reclamation of degraded lands for productive use or their conservation for natural rehabilitation, as appropriate;

(c) Provision of adequate insurance against recurrent droughts and famine in the drylands;

(d) Improvement of the quality of life of the inhabitants of lands affected by desertification, including health, sanitation and family planning and achievement of the goal of satisfying basic human needs in the extensive areas of world drylands;

(e) Prevention of adverse desertification impact on global climate change and biodiversity including germplasm materials for many crop and fodder plants.

17. For the same period, the following targets for supporting measures are envisaged:

(a) Incorporation of national actions to combat desertification into broader national development policies, plans or programmes;

(b) Mobilization of national, regional and international resources needed for the full implementation of the PACD;

(c) Mobilization and strengthening of national, regional and international institutional capabilities for implementing the Plan;

(d) Introduction of new land use economic and social policies conductive to sustainable development of land and water resources and improvement of land use;

(e) Making land users the main actors in designing and implementing the Plan and ensuring full public participation in anti-desertification campaign;

(f) Development of indigenous national and ecoregional scientific research and technology capabilities;

(g) Co-ordination of current and new national, regional and international sectoral programmes within broader environment/development programmes;

(h) Establishment of a global network of national, regional and international institutional and technical facilities for current operational assessment and continuous monitoring of desertification;

(i) Strengthening of regional programmes and international co-operation in the campaign against desertification;

(j) Provision of free flow of technology on favorable terms to areas affected by, or prone to, desertification;

(k) Improvement of infrastructure in the areas affected by, or prone to, desertification.

18. The following set of practical measures, at national level, to achieve the above targets is recommended:

Preventive, Corrective and Rehabilitation Measures

Recommendation 1: To introduce improved land use systems:

Step 1 - to introduce an integrated approach in the utilization of every piece of land in accordance with its ecological characteristics;

Step 2 - to introduce improved land/water/crop management systems in existing irrigated croplands;

Step 3 - to stabilize rainfed croplands and to introduce improved soil/crop management systems into this land use practice;

Step 4 - to introduce improved rangeland/husbandry management systems based on innovative or adapted indigenous technologies;

Step 5 - to undertake major afforestation/reforestation campaigns;

Step 6 - to undertake, whenever appropriate, major campaigns on stabilization of shifting sands.

Recommendation 2: To develop and introduce appropriate, improved and advanced, socially and environmentally acceptable and economically feasible agricultural and pastoral technologies.

Recommendation 3: To establish adequate communication infrastructure and sufficient processing and marketing facilities.

Recommendation 4: To develop appropriately available water resources and to introduce improved water management systems.

Recommendation 5: To reclaim for productive use or to protect effectively for natural rehabilitation, as appropriate, strongly desertified lands.

Supporting Measures

Recommendation 6: To establish or to strengthen, as appropriate, the national institutional capabilities for implementing the PACD.

Recommendation 7: To launch nationally a major sustained anti-desertification awareness/training campaign.

Recommendation 8: To introduce a "loop model" in the existing or newly established extension service.

Recommendation 9: To finalize the operative large-scale local and national assessment of the current status of desertification.

Recommendation 10: To develop, adopt through appropriate national legislation and introduce institutionally new national environmentally sound and development oriented land use policy.

Recommendation 11: To develop and introduce effective national insurance schemes against recurrent drought and famine.

19. Countries affected by, or prone to, desertification might wish to set their own priorities in implementing their NPACDs. However, it seems logic that a first practical step would be to implement Recommendations 6 and 7 above, within 3-5 years. Recommendations 8, 9, 10 and 11 may take a longer time probably up to the year 2000. Implementation of Recommendations 1 and 2 could start simultaneously on a trial basis. The Plan can thus become fully operational throughout affected areas by around the year 2000. Full scale reconstruction will take longer time probably through the year 2010 by which time Recommendations 1 and 2 could be fully implemented. The stabilization period will take still a longer period probably up to year 2020 by which time Recommendations 3, 4 and 5 would have been implemented.

20. A programme for the implementation of a world-wide direct action to combat desertification may be based on one of the following three options:

i) Implement programmes of direct preventive measures in productive drylands that are not desertified or only slightly desertified (about 30% of productive drylands). Total cost estimate is US $ 1.4-4.2 billion per year. This, however, will not save territories that are moderately desertified from further deterioration;

ii) Implement the above programme plus programme of direct corrective measures in productive drylands that are moderately desertified (areas with 10-25% loss of productivity in croplands and 25-50% in rangelands); total cost estimate is US $ 3.8-11.4 billion per year;

iii) Implement a comprehensive programme of direct measures to combat desertification in all productive drylands (preventive-corrective-rehabilitation); total cost estimate is US $ 10.0-22.4 billion per year.

The above options could be considered as the sort of action priorities that could be adopted both globally and nationally. They could be modified as appropriate within the areas concerned.

21. Sub-regional co-operation on the basis of an eco-geographical concept is advocated using existing structures and promoting co-operation between industrialized and developing countries within the regions.

22. At international level, co-operation is recommended to be strengthened in the following areas: (a) mobilization of financial resources and provision of financial assistance to countries which cannot cope with the problem by themselves; (b) development of appropriate pricing and trade policies; (c) provision of technical assistance to countries in need; (d) development of appropriate anti-desertification technologies and technology transfer to needy countries on favorable terms; (e) monitoring and co-ordination of the anti-desertification campaign at a global level; (f) information exchange; (g) international legislation.

23. It is estimated that current global direct on-site financial loss [income foregone] due to desertification amounts to about US $ 42 billion annually. Indirect off-site and social cost of desertification damage might be 2-3 or even up to 10 times higher.

24. The cost of meeting the minimum objectives of stopping the spread of desertification, that is the cost of urgent direct preventive measures in non-affected but vulnerable or only slightly affected irrigated lands (70% of their total area), rainfed croplands (53% of their total area), and rangelands (27% of their total area), amounts to about US $ 1.4-4.2 billion a year for a 20-Year programme. This should be complemented by the cost of direct corrective measures in moderately affected irrigated lands (23% of their total area) rainfed croplands (40% of their total area) and rangelands (28% of their total area) amounting to nearly US $ 2.4-7.2 billion a year for the same 20-Year programme. Out of this total sum of US $ 3.8-11.4 billion a year, US $ 2.2-6.6 billion a year are needed for financing the actions in 81 developing countries affected by desertification which cannot cope with the problem; half of this sum could, at best, be raised by the countries themselves, while the other half, or US $ 1.1-3.3 billion should come through external assistance.

25. The above indicative figures represent only the cost of direct preventive and corrective measures for protection and sustaining of productive drylands. The total cost of combating desertification, including the cost of full implementation of all recommendations of the PACD, might be several times higher.

26. Past experience showed that the amount of funds spent by the world community during 1978-1991 [approximately US $ 0.5-0.85 billion a year] on direct or supporting actions to combat desertification was far below the amount needed for the implementation of the PACD and for achieving substantial results. Financial assistance to developing countries which are most seriously struck by desertification and have no resources to cope with the problem, was particularly very inadequate. Likewise, existing mechanisms for mobilization of the resources and financing the PACD [DESCON, Special Account] appeared to be inadequate.

27. Financial assistance to developing countries struggling against desertification should be additional, that is over and above regular budgets and conventional extra budgetary resources; it must be predictable, sustainable, and with a degree of automaticity. Net additional financing and technical assistance to developing countries for combating desertification should be provided by the donor community and international institutions, through appropriate new or existing international and regional mechanisms to manage the process of mobilizing and allocating financial and technical resources, on terms which will not further exacerbate debt and trade problems of recipient countries but rather enhance their development process.

 

 

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Introduction

1. More than 6.1 billion hectares, nearly 40 per cent of the Earth's land area, is dryland. Out of this, about 0.9 billion hectares are hyper-arid deserts. The remaining 5.2 billion hectares are arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid lands, part of which have become desert degraded by man. These lands are the habitat and the source of livelihood for about one fifth of the world's population.

2. It is estimated that about 3.6 billion hectares, or 70% out of 5.2 billion hectares of potentially productive drylands, are presently threatened by various forms of land degradation or, as it is called, desertification, directly affecting the well-being and future of one sixth of the world's population. Recurrent drought is a persistent natural menace in these areas which is accentuated by unbalanced management of natural resources. It was the Sahelian drought of 1968-1973 and its tragic effects on the peoples of the region that drew world-wide attention to the chronic problems of human survival and development in drylands, particularly on the desert margins.

3. The United Nations General Assembly in Resolution 3202 (s-vi) of 1 May 1974 recommended that the international community undertakes concrete and speedy measures to arrest desertification and assist the economic development of affected areas. The Economic and Social Council's Resolution 1878 (LVII) of 16 July 1974 requested all the concerned organizations of the United Nations system to pursue a broad attack on the drought problem. Decisions of the Governing Councils of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) emphasized the need to undertake measures to check the spread of desert conditions. The General Assembly then decided, by Resolution 3337 (xxix) of 17 December 1974, to initiate concerted international action to combat desertification and, in order to provide an impetus to this action, to convene a United Nations Conference on Desertification, between 29 August and 9 September 1977 in Nairobi, Kenya, which would produce an effective, comprehensive and co-ordinated programme for solving the problem.

4. The United Nations Conference on Desertification (UNCOD) was preceded by extensive global, regional and local studies and consultations involving numerous scientists, decision and policy makers and relevant institutions all over the world.

5. On the basis of carefully collected and analyzed available data, the Conference noted the progressive diminution of biological productivity and decline of human living conditions in many arid regions of the world. This process was evidently due primarily to inappropriate land use, although accentuated by recurrent droughts. It was also evident that it threatens the well- being and socio-economic development of peoples in large areas of the world, particularly in developing countries of Africa, Central, South and South-West Asia as well as Latin America, while at the same time occurring in Australia, North America and in certain parts of Europe. The problem was identified as global in its magnitude.

6. This largely human-induced process of environmental degradation and related socio- economic decline in many drylands was considered as desertification.
7. UNCOD concluded that desertification was of global magnitude and affected adversely large areas and populations in all continents, and adopted the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (PACD), which was endorsed by the UN General Assembly that same year as one of the major world programmes.

8. The Governing Council and the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme were entrusted with the task of following-up and co-ordinating the implementation of the PACD and assisting Governments in their efforts to implement the PACD at national level. The Inter-Agency Working Group on Desertification (IAWGD) was established within the United Nations in order to assist UNEP in performing its duties. The Consultative Group for Desertification Control (DESCON), to assist in mobilizing resources, and a Special Account to finance the implementation of the PACD were created (the latter was closed in 1990 by GA Resolution 44/172A, para. 8). To assist the Governments of the Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa in the implementation of the PACD, a joint venture between UNEP and UNDP was created as part of the activities of the United Nations Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO). The major role in implementing the PACD was vested with Governments of countries affected by desertification.

9. Unfortunately, since UNCOD, progress has been modest in implementing the PACD between 1978 and 1991. It was repeatedly stated by UNEP, particularly after extensive assessments of the situation in 1984, 1987 and 1989, that desertification continued to spread. It has become one of the most serious environmental and socio-economic problems of the world, as was also stressed in the report of the United Nations Commission on Environment and Development (Our Common Future, 1988). Deep and extreme drought recurring in 1981-1984 and 1990-1991 contributed to the worsening of the situation.

10. The principal causes of failure to implement the PACD in full were considered at several global and regional international fora with the conclusion that:

a) priority was not given to the programmes for combating desertification by implementing and funding agencies, both nationally and internationally, with the result that not enough funds were made available for the implementation of the PACD;

b) developing countries affected by desertification were unable to cope with the problem without major external financial and technical assistance, but the needed assistance was not forthcoming;

c) desertification control programmes were not fully integrated in programmes of socio-economic development and were considered as measures to amend environmental damage only;

d) affected populations were not fully involved in the planning and implementation of programmes for combating desertification;

e) technical means were often sought to solve the problem, while the solutions rested in the socio-political and socio-economic mechanisms.

11. Considering the global problems in the area of environment and development to be included in the agenda of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), which will be convened in June 1992 in Brazil, the UN General Assembly, by its Resolution 44/214 of December 1989, included the problem of combating desertification "among those of major concern in maintaining the quality of the Earth's environment and especially in achieving environmentally sound and sustainable development in all countries". By the same resolution, it was further decided that UNCED should "accord high priority to drought and desertification control and consider all means necessary, including financial, scientific and technological resources, to halt and reverse the process of desertification with a view to preserving the ecological balance of the planet".

12. By General Assembly's Resolution 44/172 of December 1989, the Governing Council and the Executive Director of UNEP were invited to "contribute substantially to the discussion on desertification at the conference, inter alia, by undertaking a general evaluation, sufficiently in advance, of progress achieved in implementing the Plan of Action to Combat Desertification". The present report was prepared in response to this invitation as well as to other provisions of the same resolution.

13. In view of the particular severity of the problems in the Sudano-Sahelian region a more detailed report on the situation of desertification and drought in the Sudano-Sahelian countries has been prepared and will be made available by UNSO as a background report.

14. The first draft of this report was prepared in March 1991. Its first part concerning the assessment of the global status of desertification was discussed with experts during inter-agency consultations held at FAO, Rome, at the beginning of April 1991. By the end of the same month, a meeting of high-level UNEP consultants was convened in Geneva to discuss the first full draft of the report. Their comments and suggestions for its improvement were incorporated into the second draft for review by a bigger audience. The costing of anti-desertification measures was extensively discussed by UNEP experts with relevant specialists at FAO and IFAD in June 1991 during a specially organized mission.

15. The financial aspects of the second draft were discussed in July 1991 at the High- Level Meeting of Specialists in World Financing, after which a new third draft was prepared incorporating their comments.

16. The third draft of August 1991 was sent in advance to the members of IAWGD and DESCON for their review and comments as well as to a number of senior consultants. The meetings of IAWGD and DESCON-8 and that of UNEP's senior consultants were held in succession in Geneva on 9-10, 11-12 and 13 September 1991, respectively. The comments and suggestions obtained at these three meetings were incorporated into the fourth draft, which after final in-house revision and clearance by the Executive Director appears as the present report.

 

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UNCED Part 1 - World Status of Desertification

A. CONCEPT OF DESERTIFICATION

1. The concept of desertification was defined by UNCOD in 1977 as follows:

"Desertification is the diminution or destruction of the biological potential of land, and can lead ultimately to desert-like conditions. It is an aspect of the widespread deterioration of ecosystems, and has diminished or destroyed the biological potential, i.e. plant and animal production, for multiple use purposes at a time when increased productivity is needed to support growing populations in quest of development."

2. This definition was found inadequate and not sufficiently operational when attempts started in different parts of the world to implement various practical recommendations of the PACD and to undertake the quantitative assessment of desertification. A series of definitions was developed by individual scientists, scientific institutions and implementing agencies. A more precise new definition was required, particularly in view of the need to distinguish between desertification and another phenomenon of observed cyclic oscillations of vegetation productivity at desert fringes (desert expansion or contraction) as revealed by satellite data and related to climate fluctuations.

3. Based on special studies and extensive discussions at the Ad-Hoc Consultative Meeting on the Assessment of Desertification, which was convened by UNEP in Nairobi in February 1990, the following definition of desertification was adopted:

"Desertification/Land Degradation, in the context of assessment, is Land Degradation in Arid, Semi-arid and Dry Sub-humid Areas resulting from adverse human impact.

Land in this concept includes soil and local water resources, land surface and vegetation or crops.

Degradation implies reduction of resource potential by one or a combination of processes acting on the land. These processes include water erosion, wind erosion and sedimentation by those agents, long term reduction in the amount or diversity of natural vegetation, where relevant, and salinization and sodication."

4. The last definition was used by UNEP for the quantitative assessment of the status of desertification which was conducted during 1990-1991. The important point is not the exact wording of the definition of desertification but an agreement on a more operationally suitable tool for assessing and combating the problem. This definition sets desertification within the broad frame of global land degradation.

5. The Panel of Senior Consultants, convened by UNEP in Geneva from 25 to 27 April 1991, to discuss the first draft of a revised PACD, considered the desertification concept as well. It was pointed out that the new document should more clearly spell out the likely impacts of natural climatic conditions, particularly of recurrent droughts, on desertification; it would be necessary to note that in certain instances desertification might not only be human-induced but climate-induced as well.

6. The Governing Council of UNEP, at its 16th session in May 1991, also considered this question. By its decision 16/22, it underlined the need for further refinement of the definition of the concept of desertification, taking into account recent findings about the influence of climate fluctuations and about the resilience of soils.

7. As a follow-up to the above considerations and taking into account the results of additional studies and consultation undertaken by UNEP, the following definition was finally adopted for the present assessment of the status of desertification and preparations for UNCED:

"Desertification is land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting mainly from adverse human impact."

8. Further refinement of the concept and the definition of desertification taking into account possible influence of climate fluctuations and soil resilience, as indicated by the Governing Council of UNEP, may be undertaken in future on the basis of new knowledge acquired in the course of detailed area-specific studies and assessments. However, the present gaps in knowledge do not provide an excuse for delaying the implementation of the PACD as the existing data give overwhelming justification for a need to act urgently and effectively to control the ongoing land degradation in areas affected.

9. The urgency to address the problem of desertification by co-ordinated international action is accentuated by the facts that:

• the time for action is running short as desertification expands threatening new areas and new societies, while anti-desertification measures tend to be long-term and time demanding;

• the cost of anti-desertification measures escalates from year to year because (a) the area affected is growing (b) the degree of the damage is growing, and (c) world prices and costs of rehabilitative measures are growing;

• off-site (and social) costs of desertification will continue to increase as degradation adversely affects land, water and air resources;

• other environmental and economic problems are increasing, tending to distract the attention of society to other urgent needs;

• if the process of desertification is not arrested in the near future, world shortage of food will increase dramatically within a few decades.

10. Whether the process of desertification or its end result is considered, the most obvious symptoms relate to:

• reduction of yield or crop failure in irrigated or rainfed farmland;

• reduction of perennial plant cover and biomass produced by rangeland and consequent depletion of food available to livestock;

• reduction of available woody biomass and consequent extension of distance to sources of fuelwood or building material;

• reduction of available water due to a decrease of river flow or groundwater resources;

• encroachment of sand that may overwhelm productive land, settlements or infrastructures;

• increased flooding, sedimentation of water bodies, water and air pollution;

• societal disruption due to deterioration of life-support systems, societal need for outside help (relief aid) or for seeking haven elsewhere (environmental refugees).

11. The causes of these various forms of ecological degradation and corresponding socio-economic disruption relate to a combination of (a) human exploitation that oversteps the natural carrying capacity of the land resource system and sometimes increased negligence and abandonment of land due to the out-migration of people, (b) inherent ecological fragility of the resource system, and (c) adverse climatic conditions, in particular, severe recurrent droughts. The high degree of land degradation plays a large part in increasing the susceptibility of farming systems to the shocks of drought, as was so clearly seen in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa during the last three decades. Land resource exploitation acts through land-use operations, among which are : irrigated farming, rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, with a certain contribution from wood cutting, extraction of mineral resources, excessive tourism and hunting game animals, etc. Excessive human pressures on natural resource systems relate to : (1) increase of population and escalation of human needs; (2) socio-political processes that bring pressures on rural communities for orienting their production towards national and international markets; (3) socio-economic processes that reduce the market value of rural products and escalate the prices of basic needs of rural people; (4) processes of national development, especially programmes for expansion of farmlands for production of cash crops, that exacerbate conflicts of land and water use and often reduce areas available to marginalized communities. An overriding socio-economic issue in desertification is the imbalance of power and access to strategic resources between different groups in the society.

12. Desertification is a very distinctive global environmental and socio-economic problem requiring special attention. This process is singled out under the specific term of desertification and distinguished from similar phenomena in other more humid areas of the world because it proceeds under harsh climatic conditions and acts adversely on areas with limited natural resources, i.e. soil, water and vegetation. Naturally, there are extents and degrees, but the end result of degraded and abandoned land is a question of time only, if the process is not arrested.

13. The urgency to address this problem is connected with the fact that desertification:

Socio-economically:

• constitutes the main cause and mechanism of global loss of productive land resources and thus reduces the world capability of providing sufficient food and shelter to growing populations, contributing to the spread of poverty and hunger;

• causes economic instability and political unrest in areas affected, struggle for scarce land and water resources, outward migration in seek of relief and refuge;

• brings pressures on the economy and stability of societies outside areas affected by desertification through escalating need for food aid, growth of environmental refugees, etc.;

• prevents achievement of sustainable development in countries and regions affected and through them, the world as a whole;

• directly threatens health and nutrition status of populations menaced, particularly children.

Environmentally:

• is one element of planetary environment degradation that contributes to climate change, water, air and soil pollution, deforestation, soil loss, etc.;

• contributes to loss of global biodiversity, particularly in the areas which are the centres of origin of major crop species of the world, e.g. wheat, barley, sorghum, maize, etc.;

• contributes to loss of biomass and bioproductivity of the planet and to the exhaustion of global humus reserve, thus disrupting normal global biogeo-chemical turnover and reducing the global carbon dioxide sink in particular;

• contributes to global climate change by increasing land surface albedo, increasing potential, and decreasing actual evapotranspiration rate, changing the ground surface energy budget and adjoining air temperature, and adding dust and CO2 into the atmosphere.

14. Desertification is always a site-specific problem that occurs locally within state boundaries and affects local societies of sovereign states. Therefore, it can only be solved by the peoples themselves. Governments and peoples of localities and countries affected are the primary actors of the anti-desertification campaign. At the same time, as a global problem, desertification needs to be addressed by internationally co-ordinated efforts because:

• it is a problem of global magnitude with major environmental and socio-economic consequences;

• the problem is complex and requires a holistic integrated approach including social, economic, political and technical measures which can only be provided by concerted and co-ordinated efforts of the world community;

• countries most seriously affected by desertification usually are developing countries including least developed ones, which do not have the means of coping with a problem of such magnitude;

• the problem of desertification, most seriously and directly, affects rural areas and populations engaged in various agricultural activities; however, world-wide agriculture needs substantial subsidies to survive and to feed the world; without additional support it would be virtually impossible to cope with the requirements of combating desertification and the related activities of reclaiming drylands.

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B. PAST ASSESSMENTS

(I) ASSESSMENT BY UNCOD, 1977

15. The following key indicative figures, based on various studies conducted in different parts of the world by individuals, scientific institutions and relevant agencies, both within and outside the United Nations system, were provided to UNCOD:

• According to soil/vegetation data, world drylands constitute 6.45 billion hectares or 43 percent of global land. According to climatic data,world drylands constitutes 5.55 billion hectares or 37 percent of global land.

• Area threatened at least moderately by desertification within the drylands 3.97 billion hectares or 75.1 per cent of the total drylands, excluding hyper-arid deserts
• Countries affected by desertification > 100

• Inhabitants of the world drylands > 15% of the worlds population

• Population in areas recently undergoing severe desertification 78.5 million

• Annual rate of land degradation (in arid and semi arid areas only) in million hectares:

Irrigated lands	0.125
Rainfed croplands	2.500
Rangelands	3.200
TOTAL	5.825

• Annual loss of productive capacity (income foregone) US$ 26 billion

• Annual cost of land reclamation measures US$ 388 million

• Annual benefit of land reclamation measures US$ 895 million

• A twenty-year worldwide programme to arrest further desertification requires about US$ 4.5 billion a year or US$ 90 billion in total, of which developing countries in need of financial assistance would require US$ 2.4 billion a year or US$ 48 billion for twenty years.

16. Calculations on the basis of maps produced by FAO, UNESCO and WMO for the conference showed the following areas of dryland in the world in million hectares: Table

 

17. Territories affected by desertification hazard were assessed by UNCOD as follows:

RISK	ARID		SEMI-ARID		SUB-HUMID		WORLD TOTAL
	*	**	*	**	*	**	*	**
Very severe	110	6.7	220	11.5	20	5.0	350	8.8
Severe	1340	80.7	440	23.1	60	15.0	1840	46.4
Moderate	210	12.6	1250	65.4	320	80.0	1780	44.8
World Total	1660	100.0	1910	100.0	400	100.0	3970	100.0
_______________________ * million hectares ** % of the affected area

 

 

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(II) ASSESSMENT BY UNEP, 1984

18. The general assessment of t he status and trend of desertification was undertaken by UNEP in accordance with UNEPs Governing Council decision 9/22A of 26 May 1981. The summarized results of the assessment were presented in the Executive Directors Report UNEP GC.12/9 of 16 February 1984 and were considered by the Governing Council at its 12th Session. The main findings arising from the assessment showed that:

• the scale and urgency of the problem of desertification as presented to UNCOD and addressed by the PACD were confirmed;

• desertification has continued to spread and intensify despite efforts undertaken since 1977, and the efforts were too modest to be effective;

• land degraded to desert-like conditions continued at 6 million hectares annually, and land reduced to zero or negative net economic productivity was showing an increase (from 20 to 21 million hectares annually);

• areas affected by at least moderate desertification were: 3,100 million hectares of rangelands, 335 million hectares of rainfed croplands, and 40 million hectares of irrigated lands, thus totalling up to 3,475 million hectares;

• rural populations in areas severely affected by desertification numbered 135 million;

• projections to the year 2000 indicated that desertification in rangelands would continue to increase at existing rates; in rainfed croplands it would accelerate into a critical situation; in irrigated lands, the status of desertification would likely remain largely as it was, with gains balancing losses and with possible local improvements;

• the cost of losses due to desertification was estimated as five times the cost of halting desertification.

19. Areas within arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zones of the worlds drylands were estimated as follows:

 

	AFFECTED BY DESERTIFICATION		NOT AFFECTED BY DESERTIFICATION		TOTAL
	million hectares	%*	million hectares	%*	million hectares	%*
Rangelands**	3100	80	600	20	3700	100
Rainfed croplands	335	60	235	40	570	100
Irrigated lands	40	30	91	70	131	100
Total	3475	70	926	30	4409	100
______________________ * % of their total areas in drylands ** The term rangelands, for purposes of desertification assessment, includes all territories presently used as grazing lands, which are accounted for in yearly FAOs statistics, as well as other non-agricultural, largely unoccupied, drylands which are used only occasionally by nomadic pastoralists or are presently unused at all.

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C. PRESENT STATUS - ASSESSMENT 1991

20. A new assessment of the world status of desertification was undertaken by UNEP in 1990-1991 in accordance with the provisions of UN General Assemblys Resolution 44/172 of December 1989.

 

(I) DEFINITION OF DRYLAND AREA

21. For purposes of the present assessment a new working definition of desertification was adopted in February 1990 (see para. 3 above). Following this definition, a world map of drylands was prepared by GEMS/GRID of UNEP in 1991, on the basis of climatic data sets supplied by the University of East Anglia for the period of1951-1980. Aridity zones were defined in accordance with their physical parameters using the following precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (calculated by adapted Thornthwaite formula as opposed to the Penman formula used in 1977) ratios:

 

Hyper-arid	0.05
Arid	0.05-0.20
Semi-arid	0.21-0.50
Dry sub-humid	0.51-0.65
Moist sub-humid & Humid	0.65
______________________ For the region boundaries the conventions used in the Times Atlas of the World,1985 were followed.

WORLD DRYLANDS

22. According to these new data, the following is the area of world drylands in million hectares:

Table

23. The estimates of the total area of the world drylands made in 1977, 1984 and 1991 were obtained using slightly different methodologies and different climatic data sets. Therefore, they should not be compared as a time-sequence. The latest (1991) data sets are regarded as more precise being based on time-dependent climatic data selected with most rigorous criteria. A remarkable coincidence of estimates of total drylands of the world in 1977 and 1991 should be noted, while the differences between the continental figures are sometimes significant. Thus, all figures given above and below should be regarded as indicative only, with a degree of accuracy of + 10%.

24. It follows from the above that accurate measurement of changes in areas of lands affected by desertification during 1977-1991 at global or continental scales is not attainable as the observed changes will fall within the range of standard error. However, estimations of changes and trends are possible for areas where more precise data are available as a result of recent detailed assessments at national or local level.

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(II)GLOBAL STATUS OF DESERTIFICATION

(a) Socio-economic aspects

25. During the whole period under consideration, from 1978 to 1991, and even earlier during recent decades, while people were the main agents of desertification, they were also its victims. Throughout the world drylands in developing countries, desertification has been one of the main factors in the migration of subsistence farmers and pastoralists to the slums and shanty towns of major cities looking for better opportunities, producing desperate populations vulnerable to disease and natural disasters and prone to participate in crime and civil strife. Such exodus from rural to urban areas has exacerbated the already dire urban problems in many developing countries affected by desertification. At the same time, it has delayed efforts to rehabilitate and develop dryland rural areas through lack of manpower and increased negligence of land. The effects of land degradation in drylands were compounded by recurrent severe droughts.

26. The mass exodus from rural areas affected by desertification that has been taking place in Africa since the late 1970s is a vivid illustration of the plight of people facing such intolerable environmental conditions. At the peak of the crisis, in 1984 and 1985, an estimated 30-35 million people in 21 African countries were seriously affected by severe droughts, of which about 10 million were displaced and became known as environmental refugees. Death, disease, chronic malnutrition and disability haunt these millions of refugees because of continuing intolerable living conditions. In 1991 there were still some 30 million Africans who were threatened by famine and needed urgent external food aid in order to survive, e.g. Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia, The Sudan and several countries in West Sahel.

27. Recent developments further underlined the fact that desertification is the result of complex interactions between physical, chemical, biological, socio-economic and political issues, both of local, national and global nature. It was often overlooked that challenges to productivity and thus the physical, chemical and biological stability of land were closely linked to national and international economic policies. The socio-economic climate and thus the political framework of land tenure, taxation and trade barriers have been particularly disadvantageous for poor developing countries affected by, or prone to, desertification during the past decades. The burden placed on the individual land user in these countries can partly be traced to international policies and markets, but also have roots in transition in local usufruct rights and in domestic priorities, often favoring the urban consumer over the rural producer, and political and economic mismanagement in developing countries themselves. Development policies often lacked poverty abatement orientation, so that marginalized peoples often got little support in breaking the vicious circles that forced them to mismanage land. Women land users often failed to obtain credit and access to advisory services that could improve their land use practices.

28. Most developing countries affected by desertification today not only face high population growth rates (frequently 3.0-3.5% per annum) but also high rates of urbanization (8-10% per annum). Some countries in Latin America already have 3/4 of their population living in towns and cities, with Asia and Africa just above 1/3 and under 1/3, respectively. There are countries in Africa with more than half of the population urbanized, e.g. Zambia 52%, Djibouti 81%. The growing number of urban dwellers requires food. There is therefore a steady stream of soil nutrients (in the form of food, fuelwood and charcoal) moving from the productive countryside to the towns, to end up as useless, often polluting, sewage. This rapid transition from rural to urban societies has not been matched by equally rapid replenishment of soil nutrients, as was so characteristic of the older subsistence economies in developing countries or of modernized agriculture in developed ones.

29. Demand on production has increased the pressure on existing productive land and moved the limits of production onto increasingly marginal lands. There is a steady tendency of expansion of irrigation onto rainfed croplands while the latter is encroaching onto better rangelands forcing pastoralists to move further onto poorer and dryer desert areas of lower productivity. This process is accompanied by an ever increasing rate of soil degradation as marginal lands are much more susceptible to adverse processes like erosion and salinization. Increased use of the worlds drylands for cropping and grazing means increased dependence on rainfed agriculture and rangelands, where rainfall not only is low but highly variable. A run of dry years, as experienced throughout the drylands in seventies and eighties, followed periods of favorable rainfall when cropping and high stocking rates become common in areas previously little used. As desertification persisted, productivity fell but food demands grew with growing populations. Famine persisted. Although the drylands have shown remarkable resilience, returning more rapidly to productive states with subsequent wetter years than was expected by most experts, they remain vulnerable and will doubtlessly be subject to new droughts and famines.

30. Agricultural expansion to marginal lands often resulted in rapid land degradation, with subsequent decline in production. With marginal drylands, it is often hunger for land that causes agricultural encroachment by poor marginalized farmers, and it illustrates that unwise use of land is also a poverty issue. Unless adequate livelihoods can be created elsewhere, e.g. through further intensification of agriculture in fertile areas or the creation of off-farm employment, there is little political realism in trying to stop agricultural encroachment on marginal drylands and consequently, desertification.

31. The overall situation in areas affected by desertification, particularly in Africa, may be illustrated by a conclusion of the most recent study in The Sudan (K. Olsson and A. Rapp, 1991): The drought of 1982-1984 resulted in serious dryland degradation in Central Sudan (Kordofan). The period was characterized by greatly diminished rainfall, loss of vegetation, crop failures with zero harvest of cereals, soil erosion, famine, suffering and death of people and livestock,and human migration from the region. The northward movement of grassland that occurred following the culmination of the drought of 1982-1984 appears to represent a quite rapid recovery from drought-engendered dryland degradation. Recovery can be attributed, in part, to an increase in rainfall, but it is important to note that rainfall during the period 1985- 1987 remained below the long-term average for the region. Thus it seems that an important contributor to the recovery has been the low level of exploitation during the period 1985-1986, owing to the large numbers of people and animals that had been wiped out during 1983-1984.

 

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(b) State of the land

32. Two global data sets showing different aspects of dryland deterioration were obtained in the course of the present assessment.

The first data set was produced in ICASALS of Texas Tech University, USA, on the basis of available country statistics with reference to major land uses in drylands. It shows various forms of land degradation in drylands delineated in previous assessments with a correction for subdividing the sub-humid zone into two parts, dry and moist.

The second one relates to soil degradation within drylands of the world delineated by the GEMS/GRID aridity zones and is based on the World Map of the Status of Human Induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD) prepared by ISRIC/UNEP in 1990 at an average scale of 1:10,000,000. Due to scale limitations, this map shows the situation only by continents with no relation to major land-use systems.

The two data sets are different, although interrelated: they can be compared at a global and continental level but they should not be directly compared at a country level. The major difference between the global figures for degraded areas within the drylands can be attributed to extensive rangeland areas with significant vegetation degradation but no recorded soil degradation, which have been treated as non-degraded stable lands in the GLASOD assessment, e.g. all extensive areas of rangelands in Australia or the Aral-Caspian Basin of the USSR. These rangeland areas are included in the figures of land degradation but not in the figures pertaining to soil degradation.

Reconciliation of these two data sets of global figures provides the following picture of the status of desertification in the world:

 

	Million hectares drylands	Percent of total
1. Degraded irrigated lands	43	0.8
2. Degraded rainfed croplands	216	4.1
3. Degraded rangelands [soil and vegetation degradation]	757	14.6
4. Drylands with human-induced soil degradation [GLASOD] [1 + 2 + 3]	016	19.5
5. Degraded rangelands [vegetation degradation without recorded soil degradation]	2576	50.0
6. Total degraded drylands [4 + 5]	3592	69.5
7. Non-degraded drylands	1580	30.5
8. Total area of drylands excluding hyper-arid deserts [6 + 7]	5172	100.0

 

 

 

The above breakdown of degraded areas indicates that some 2.6 billion hectares, mainly in rangelands, suffer from degradation process not recorded in the data compilation carried out in the framework of GLASOD, additionally some 1 billion hectares suffer from soil degradation as well, making a total area of drylands affected by degradation at present nearly 3.6 billion hectares or about 70% of total drylands.

33. The largest areas of degraded irrigated lands are situated in the drylands of Asia, followed by North America, Europe, Africa, South America and Australia in a descending order (see Figure 2). About 43 million hectares of irrigated lands or 30% of their total area in the worlds drylands [145 m.ha] are affected by various processes of degradation, mainly waterlogging, salinization and alkalinization (Table 1 in Annex). Apparently there is an increase of some 3 million hectares in comparison with the assessment in 1984, [about 7.5%], but this falls within the range of + 10% accuracy. It would be safer to assume that the situation did not change appreciably during this period and remained unsatisfactory with a tendency to getting worse.

 

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Figure 2. Situation in Irrigated Lands Within World Drylands

Irrigated lands in drylands constitute nearly 62% of the total irrigated area of the world [240 m.ha]. It was established by soil scientists that the world is now losing, annually, about 1.5 million hectares of irrigated lands due to various processes of soil degradation, mostly salinization and mainly in drylands. It would thus be safe to assume that about 1.0-1.3 million hectares of irrigated land are currently lost every year throughout the world drylands, being compensated for by involving the best rainfed croplands and rangelands in irrigation, whose area decreases accordingly.

34. Nearly 216 million hectares of rainfed croplands or about 47% of their total area in the world drylands (457 million hectares) are affected by various processes of degradation, mainly water and wind soil erosion, depletion of nutrients and physical deterioration (see Figure 3 and Table 2 in Annex). It shows some decrease in comparison with the 1984 assessment. Rainfed cropland in drylands constitutes nearly 36% of its total area in the world (out of 1260 million hectares). It was estimated that the world is losing annually about 7-8 million hectares of croplands due to various processes of soil degradation, mainly erosion and urbanization, more than half of it is in the drylands. Therefore, it follows that about 3.5-4.0 million hectares of rainfed croplands are currently lost every year throughout the worlds drylands, being compensated for by involving the best rangelands in cultivation, the area of which decreases accordingly.

 

 

 

Figure 3. Situation in Rainfed Lands Within World Drylands

35. This present assessment shows that the largest area of degraded rangelands again occurs in Asia followed by Africa, while the percentage of degraded rangelands is similar in both these continents and in Europe and Americas as well (see Figure 4 and Table 3 in Annex). The figures for Australia seem to be underestimated, but this has to be studied further as earlier published figures also showed about two thirds of the rangelands as being affected by degradation.

 

Figure 4. Situation in Rangelands WIthin World Drylands

About 3,333 million hectares of rangeland or nearly 73% of its total area in the worlds drylands (4,556 million hectares) are affected by degradation, mainly by degradation of vegetation which on some 757 million hectares is accompanied by soil degradation, mainly erosion. It shows an increase of some 233 million hectares in comparison with the 1984 assessment, that is about 7.5%. Again this falls within the range of +10% accuracy. As in the case of irrigated lands, it would be safer to assume that the situation did not change appreciably during this period and remained very unsatisfactory with a tendency to getting worse. There are no reliable global data on actual losses of rangelands and their conversion into agricultural land, wasteland/badland/desert or urban lands.

Fig. 5 illustrates the situation in North Africa, showing not only the decrease of rangeland area on account of growing cultivated and fallowed (abandoned due to soil degradation) land, but a decline of rangeland productivity as well caused by increasing pressure of population. If the above estimations of losses of agricultural lands and their compensation on account of better rangelands are correct, then it follows that annual losses of the rangelands within the drylands are of an order of some 4.5-5.8 million hectares and even more if so far unaccounted sand encroachment, urbanization, etc. is to be considered.

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FIGURE 5. Evolution of human population, land use and productivity of rangeland in North Africa between 1980 and 1990 (Le Hourou, 1991)

36. The summary of the above findings illustrates the following global status of desertification/land degradation: 70% of all agriculturally used drylands is affected at some degree by various forms of land degradation, mostly by the degradation of natural vegetation partly accompanied by serious deterioration of soil (see Figure 6 and Table 4 in Annex). Apparently, the situation is better in Australia and somewhat better in Europe than in the rest of the world where it seems to be more or less similar everywhere, but the situation in Australia could be underestimated. The worst situation is in North America and Africa, although the problem is not much less serious in South America and Asia.

FIGURE 6

37. A comparison of total estimates for the areas affected by desertification shows an increase from 3,475 million hectares in 1984 to 3,592 million hectares in 1991, that is 117 million hectares or 3.4 %. This increase in figures falls within the range of + 10% accuracy and thus should not be considered as a proven change. The conclusion again is that the situation remains the same and very unsatisfactory.

38. Despite existing inaccuracy of the available data, the present assessment shows very definitely a dramatic situation in land resources of the world drylands about 70% of which is affected by desertification or various forms of land degradation. It is difficult at this stage to make definite predictions for the future trends, but the process, if unabated, may lead to very serious socio-political and economic consequences for the world, mostly in developing countries. 18 industrialized or oil-producing countries out of the 99 countries affected are believed to be able to cope with the problem and to combat desertification of some 1.5 billion hectares of their territories. For the 81 developing countries with 2.1 billion hectares of lands affected by desertification the problem cannot be solved without major external assistance through international partnership.

39. The analysis of soil degradation, in degrees, in areas of the world drylands shows that major areas of degraded soils are confined to semi-arid (419.4 million hectares) and arid (392.2 million hectares) zones (Table 5 in Annex). The area of degraded soils in drylands of the world comprises some 1,138 million hectares or more than 18% of the total area. Mostly, soils are slightly and moderately affected by various degradation processes, the strong and extreme degradation being more limited.

40. The analysis of soil degradation, by types, in areas of the world affected by desertification shows that the major soil degradation process in drylands is wind erosion (512.4 million hectares) followed by water erosion (478.4 million hectares), then chemical (111.5 million hectares) and physical (34.9 million hectares) degradation (Table 6 in Annex). In dry sub-humid and semi-arid zones water erosion is more serious than wind action, while in arid and hyper-arid areas wind erosion is more serious.

41. The analysis of soil degradation, by types and degrees, in areas of the world affected by desertification, excluding hyper-arid zone, indicates that the major soil degradation process in these areas is water erosion (45.2%) followed by wind erosion (41.8%) then chemical (9.7%) and physical (3.4%) degradation, the dominant role is played by slight (41.3%) and moderate (45.4%), while strong (12.6%) and extreme (0.7%) degrees are not very significant (Table 7 in Annex). Three major causative factors responsible for soil degradation in drylands are: overgrazing (34.5%), deforestation (29.5%) and agriculture (28.1%). Apparently, Asia is the major sufferer from soil degradation in drylands followed by Africa, if the total area affected is considered, while the percentage of the affected areas is the largest in Africa [81% in Africa compared to 22% in Asia]. All other continents have approximately the same areas of drylands affected by soil degradation, while the percentage is the lowest in North America and Europe (Table 8 in Annex).

 

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(III) LOCAL ASSESSMENTS OF DESERTIFICATION RATE

42. There are no reliable global data on the present rate of desertification with the exception of those figures on annual land losses provided above in paragraphs pertaining to irrigated land (33), rainfed cropland (34) and rangeland (35). Certain local studies provide more detailed additional information in this respect. 43. KENYA

In the Baringo study area of 360 thousand hectares, situated in a transitional zone with annual precipitation of nearly 600 mm rising to 1900 mm in the surrounding mountains and mostly used as rangeland with some irrigated agriculture, the following changes were observed from 1950 to 1981, in percentage of the total area:

Areas improved to better vegetation class........ 11.0
Areas degraded to worse vegetation class....... 14.0
Expansion of agricultural area........................... 5.3

Calculations give the rate of vegetation degradation as 1,626 hectares per year, which gives the annual desertification rate of 0.6%.

In the Marsabit study area of 1,400 thousand hectares, situated in a more dry zone with annual precipitations of less that 250 mm rising up to 800 mm in the surrounding mountains and mostly used under extensive pastoralism with some mixed farming, the changes during 1956-1972 were as follows, in percentage of the total area:

Areas improved to better vegetation class......... 0.0
Areas degraded to worse vegetation class........ 20.5
Areas mainly unchanged..................................... 79.5
Expansion of agricultural area............................ 0.0

Calculations give the rate of vegetation degradation as 17,937 hectares per year, that is an annual desertification rate of 1.3%.

44. MALI
In three study areas of Mali, the following soil losses were observed within the last 30 to 35 years:

 

	NARA	MOURDIAH	YANFOLILA
Total area, hectares	60,241	69,622	67,888
Annual precipitation, mm	400	800	1,200
Annual soil loss, hectares	16.5	143	8
Annual soil loss, percent	0.03	0.2	0.01

 

 

This study gives an average annual soil loss rate of 0.1% but does not provide any data on vegetation degradation and thus does not give a full picture of desertification.

 

45. TUNISIA
The following changes in Tunisia were noted in the areas of different land uses in thousand hectares:

 

	1880	1980	Balance
1. Cereals cultivation	400	2,000	+ 1,600
2. Trees cultivation	200	1,600	+ 1,400
3. Total cultivated land [1+2]	600	3,600	+ 3,000
4. Grazing land	10,000	6,000	- 4,000
5. Loss of productive land to desert [4-3]			1,000

 

Calculations give the average annual loss of productive land by desertification as of an order of 10 thousand hectares within this last century. Thus an average annual desertification rate of 10% is characteristic of the desert fringes of Tunisia.

46. CHINA
Certain studies conducted by Chinese academic institutions show the present rate of desertification expansion on the fringes of the desert as being of the order of 210 thousand hectares per year; relating this figure to 33.4 million hectares of desertification-prone lands of China would give the present average annual desertification rate of 0.6%.

Some local studies even showed that the present annual rate of desertification was 1.3% in Kangbao County north of Beijing in Hebei Province, while in Fengning County it was 1.6%.

47. USSR
The annual desertification rate in certain districts of Kalmykia north-west of the Caspian Sea was recently estimated as high as 10%, while in others it was of an order of 1.5% or 5.4%.
The desert growth around the drying Aral Sea was estimated at about 100 thousand hectares per year during the last 25 years, which gives an average annual desertification rate of 4%. With the same annual rate of about 4%, desertification expands on the adjoining rangelands, greatly reducing their productivity.

48. SYRIA
An area of some 500 thousand hectares in the Anti-Lebanon Range north of Damascus was studied recently assessing the changes in land and land-use patterns from 1958 to 1982. It was found that the area of rocky shrub land and bare skeletal land has increased from 50 thousand hectares or 10% to 80 thousand hectares or 16% of the total. It gives a present average annual rate of desertification of 0.25% for this area.

49. YEMEN
Existing statistics show that the average for the country annual rate of cultivated land abandonment due to soil degradation has increased from 0.6% in 1970-1980 to about 7.0% in 1980-1984.

50. SAHEL
According to a recent (1989) publication (Le Sahel en Lutte contre la Desertification: Leons dExperiences) of the results of a co-operative study in the western part of the Sudano-Sahelian region conducted jointly by Comite Inter-Etats de Lutte Contre la Sechresse au Sahel (CILSS) and Programme Allemand CILSS (PAC), in the southern parts of Mauritania, Mali and Niger the desertification rate during 1961 and 1987 was of an order of some 2 million hectares per year.

51. The above data from the case studies show very large variations in the annual rate of desertification in different parts of the world ranging from 0.1% to 10.0% giving a hundred times difference. The main conclusion is that the more arid an area is the higher its rate of desertification tends to be. If we assume, on the basis of the above case studies, that the annual rate of desertification is about 10% in arid lands, 1% in semi-arid lands and 0.1% in dry sub- humid lands, then calculations will give present annual increase of lands affected by desertification as follows: 156.9 million hectares in arid areas, 23.05 million hectares in semi- arid areas and 1.3 million hectares in dry sub-humid areas, making a total of 181.2 million hectares throughout the drylands of the world. This will give an average rate of current desertification progress of 3.5% per year. Further studies on the basis of the global monitoring system are needed to obtain more reliable data.

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(IV) SITUATION IN AFRICA

52. Drylands in Africa, including hyper-arid deserts, comprise 1,959 million hectares or 65% of the continent and about one third of the world drylands. One third of this area are hyper-arid deserts (672 million hectares) which are uninhabited, with the exception of sparse thiny oases, while the remaining two thirds or 1,287 million hectares are made of arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas with a population of about 400 million (two thirds of all Africans).

53. According to the present assessment, 1.9 million hectares of irrigated croplands or 18% of their total area, 48.86 million hectares of rainfed croplands or 61% of their total area, and 995.08 million hectares of rangelands or 74% of their total area in Africa are affected by desertification at a moderate or a higher degree.

54. Recurrent droughts constitute a permanent factor of life throughout the drylands of Africa. It is safe to state that practically every year there is a drought in some part or the other of the continent. Major droughts, however, regularly affect larger portions of the drylands. Such disastrous events occurred recently in 1968-1973, 1982-1985 and 1990-1991 when many countries of Africa experienced substantial food shortages. With each drought cycle desertification increases.

55. Other factors contributing to desertification include uncontrolled population growth, inadequate agricultural practices, increase of livestock beyond the carrying capacity of 3natural rangelands, and deforestation (See Figures 5 and 7). The situation in this respect is illustrated by the following figures showing annual percentage rates of change in anthropogenic factors influencing desertification:

 

	AFRICA		SUDANO-SAHELIAN REGION
	1977-1985	1985-1988	1977-1985	1985-1988
Population	3.0	3.0	2.7	3.0
Livestock	1.3	1.7	0.7	0.6
Fuelwood	2.9	3.0	2.5	2.3
Charcoal	3.1	2.9	-	1.5

 

Figure 7. Global Statues of Desertification/Land Degradation Within World Drylands

56. The above data show very clearly that all major factors of desertification in Africa remain unabated leading to the progress of land degradation inspite of modest efforts to arrest it. Although satellite data show rather big fluctuations of rainfall-dependent northern and southern boundaries of green biomass production zones, both seasonal and annual, the overall trend is negative. There are clear manifestations of continued ecological degradation.

57. In 1989, UNSO circulated questionnaires to fifty African countries affected by desertification. 50% of government respondents saw a significant worsening of the situation, as reflected in falling groundwater levels, drying up of surface waters, rangeland degradation, rainfed and irrigated cropland deterioration and deforestation, while 17% rated it as slightly worse. In the same year, UNEP conducted similar survey in affected countries of Southern Africa with a general conclusion that the situation is worsening throughout the region without any exception. The effects of desertification are widely felt in affected countries, eroding the productive capacity of local and national economies and threatening the very survival of the people.

58. Civil strife is a complicating factor influencing resource systems and availability of food in many drylands of the continent. The corresponding problems in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Angola, Mozambique and other countries of Africa are well known. Being short-term in itself, this factor contributes greatly to the long-term process of land degradation in many ways, partly because of leaving land unattended which is not always good for natural recovery of land as opposed to general belief, particularly in a short-term perspective.

59. Desertification has a considerable bearing on overall economic performance and prospects in the majority of African countries affected by the process as these countries rely heavily on their drylands as the main resource base. Agricultural production per capita, the indicator that reflects the ability of the domestic agricultural sector to satisfy domestic consumer demand, is stagnating or even has declined from the levels of 1970s. Similarly, the average annual growth of GNP per capita, which in Sub-Saharan Africa increased at 3.0 % between 1965 and 1973, fell by 2.8% between 1980 and 1986, by 4.4% in 1987 and by 0.5% in 1989. Furthermore, economic growth in Africa was lower in 1990 than in 1989, particularly in countries of the Sudano-Sahelian region. The following data on food production taken from World Economy Survey 1990, illustrate the overall deterioration of the situation in the majority of the African countries affected by desertification:

FIGURE
60. Particularly complex and serious situation seems to persist in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Africa. Although there are no directly measured data on desertification and its social and economic consequences for the region as a whole, certain case studies and published statistical data for some of the countries of the region show that the situation is not improving but rather getting worse. In Sahel, for example, within the last 20 years, from 1969 to 1989, agricultural production has fluctuated from year to year in conformity with rainfall patterns. However, the general trend within this period was positive and some growth of agricultural production was obtained. This trend of the growth was mainly on account of the cropping area, while the average yields were stagnating at a low level inspite of all technological and management efforts, clearly indicating the effect of continuing land degradation. The same might be said about other countries of the region as well. The above country data on agricultural situation in Africa support this view. Despite all the means employed in the region and periodically occurring more favorable weather conditions, the scale and aggressiveness of desertification continue to produce a chain of negative consequences for the environment and hence for the economy which measures already taken can only counter with difficulty. Reports prepared by UNSO underline the fact that desertification in the Sudano-Sahel is exacerbated by unpredictable and often severe droughts; desertification, or aridification, due to extended droughts the most recent one lasting almost 20 years; as well as dryland degradation. As a result of this extended drought, which reached nadirs in the early 1970s and mid-1980s, Lake Chad contracted at its low point to one third of its normal area, rivers have fallen, and the land has been severely damaged, especially by erosion. Although there has been a recovery of rainfall in 1991 in various places, drought is a chronic phenomenon which may be expected to recur in the region. An even more alarming situation is that traditional rural land use, especially agriculture, may be near the limits of expansion, so that further increases in production my be obtained only with higher inputs. Increased agricultural production may become economically unfeasible and highly destructive to the environment unless there is provision for financial destructive to the environment unless there is a provision for financial assistance to cover the costs of the increased inputs and for environmental safeguards. Fuelwood supply has reached crisis proportions in certain regions and may reach an overall crisis even sooner than the already precarious food supply.

 

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PART II - THE UNITED NATIONS PLAN OF ACTION TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION (PACD) ...

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